Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISION#20 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PARIVISION pick
67%67%
MOUZ · 8 mapsnearly even +0%PARIVISION · 8 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
64%50%
MOUZ · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +14%PARIVISION · 6 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
42%64%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge PARIVISION +22%PARIVISION · 7 maps
InfernoPARIVISION ban
50%25%
MOUZ · 6 mapsedge MOUZ +25%PARIVISION · 4 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
71%50%
MOUZ · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +21%PARIVISION · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%40%
MOUZ · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +27%PARIVISION · 1 map
CacheMOUZ ban
50%29%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +21%PARIVISION · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
2. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ take Mirage
4. PickPARIVISION take Dust2
5. BanPARIVISION remove Inferno
6. BanMOUZ remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (67% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
MOUZ 47%PARIVISION 53%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
MOUZ 77%PARIVISION 23%
The model gave 77% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 70%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2