CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDETONATE pick
50%38%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge my life be like +12%DETONATE · 9 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
50%30%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge my life be like +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
Cachemy life be like ban
50%56%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +6%DETONATE · 5 maps
Anubismy life be like pick
50%29%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge my life be like +21%DETONATE · 3 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
50%40%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge my life be like +10%DETONATE · 1 map
Nukemy life be like ban
50%40%
my life be like · 0 mapsedge my life be like +10%DETONATE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmy life be like remove Cache
2. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
3. Pickmy life be like take Anubis
4. PickDETONATE take Inferno
5. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
6. Banmy life be like remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
my life be like 63%DETONATE 37%
The model gave 63% on my life be like — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Nukeprediction missed3:13
my life be like 57%DETONATE 43%
The model gave 57% on my life be like — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 55%
Series resultDETONATE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2