ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nas#189 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nas pick
55%61%
Nas · 7 mapsedge Rare Atom +6%Rare Atom · 14 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
50%50%
Nas · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
Nas · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 6 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
50%67%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Rare Atom · 8 maps
InfernoNas ban
50%50%
Nas · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 8 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
55%50%
Nas · 7 mapsedge Nas +5%Rare Atom · 0 maps
AnubisNas ban
50%57%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Rare Atom · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Inferno
2. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
3. PickNas take Dust2
4. PickRare Atom take Cache
5. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
6. BanNas remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Nas 46%Rare Atom 54%
The model gave 54% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
Nas 31%Rare Atom 69%
The model gave 69% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 62%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2