ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
Nas#189 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
56%50%
Nas · 5 mapsedge Nas +6%Secret · 2 maps
NukeNas pick
56%50%
Nas · 5 mapsedge Nas +6%Secret · 0 maps
Dust2Secret ban
50%50%
Nas · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Secret · 0 maps
MirageSecret ban
43%50%
Nas · 3 mapsedge Secret +7%Secret · 0 maps
CacheSecret pick
50%67%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Secret +17%Secret · 2 maps
AnubisNas ban
50%40%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +10%Secret · 1 map
InfernoNas ban
50%60%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Secret +10%Secret · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Inferno
2. BanSecret remove Dust2
3. PickNas take Nuke
4. PickSecret take Cache
5. BanSecret remove Mirage
6. BanNas remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:1
Nas 53%Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Nas 53%Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Nas — the map was taken by Nas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 55%
Series resultNas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2