Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · win 13:9series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 13:9
3DMAX#20 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno3DMAX ban
56%33%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +23%3DMAX · 8 maps
Ancient3DMAX ban
67%50%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +17%3DMAX · 6 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
33%67%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge 3DMAX +34%3DMAX · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%38%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +5%3DMAX · 4 maps
CacheNatus Vincere ban
50%55%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge 3DMAX +5%3DMAX · 7 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
50%25%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsedge Natus Vincere +25%3DMAX · 4 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
63%50%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Natus Vincere +13%3DMAX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
2. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
3. BanNatus Vincere remove Cache
4. Ban3DMAX remove Ancient
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
6. Ban3DMAX remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (43% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Natus Vincere 71%3DMAX 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1