IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
33%65%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Falcons +32%Falcons · 13 maps
AncientNatus Vincere pick
75%62%
Natus Vincere · 8 mapsedge Natus Vincere +13%Falcons · 9 maps
MirageNatus Vincere ban
75%45%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Natus Vincere +30%Falcons · 7 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
63%50%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Natus Vincere +13%Falcons · 4 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
43%56%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Falcons +13%Falcons · 5 maps
AnubisFalcons ban
56%50%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +6%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
2. BanFalcons remove Inferno
3. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
4. PickFalcons take Dust2
5. BanFalcons remove Anubis
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Natus Vincere 19%Falcons 81%
The model gave 81% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Natus Vincere 80%Falcons 20%
The model gave 80% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Anubisprediction missed16:19
Natus Vincere 56%Falcons 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 62%
Series resultFalcons 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3