BLAST Open Porto 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#8 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN#20 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%45%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +5%paiN · 7 maps
NukepaiN pick
40%60%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapedge paiN +20%paiN · 11 maps
MirageNatus Vincere pick
56%44%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +12%paiN · 5 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
43%50%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge paiN +7%paiN · 4 maps
AnubisNatus Vincere ban
43%50%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge paiN +7%paiN · 2 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%50%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 0 maps
CachepaiN ban
50%25%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge Natus Vincere +25%paiN · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
2. BanpaiN remove Ancient
3. PickNatus Vincere take Mirage
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Cache
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Natus Vincere 28%paiN 72%
The model gave 72% on paiN — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Natus Vincere 64%paiN 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2