ESEA Season 58 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chaos Enforcersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageChaos Enforcers ban
73%50%
NAVI Junior · 18 mapsedge NAVI Junior +23%Chaos Enforcers · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 16 mapsedge Chaos Enforcers +10%Chaos Enforcers · 0 maps
AncientChaos Enforcers pick
29%50%
NAVI Junior · 10 mapsedge Chaos Enforcers +21%Chaos Enforcers · 0 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior pick
57%50%
NAVI Junior · 10 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%Chaos Enforcers · 0 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
38%50%
NAVI Junior · 9 mapsedge Chaos Enforcers +12%Chaos Enforcers · 0 maps
DefaultChaos Enforcers ban
57%50%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%Chaos Enforcers · 0 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
33%50%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge Chaos Enforcers +17%Chaos Enforcers · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
2. BanChaos Enforcers remove Mirage
3. PickNAVI Junior take Anubis
4. PickChaos Enforcers take Ancient
5. BanChaos Enforcers remove Default
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
NAVI Junior 37%Chaos Enforcers 63%
The model gave 63% on Chaos Enforcers — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
NAVI Junior 60%Chaos Enforcers 40%
The model gave 60% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by Chaos Enforcers.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
NAVI Junior 33%Chaos Enforcers 67%
The model gave 67% on Chaos Enforcers — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 68%
Series resultNAVI Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3