Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMAYBE ban
75%50%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +25%MAYBE · 0 maps
NukeNAVI Junior pick
29%50%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge MAYBE +21%MAYBE · 0 maps
AncientMAYBE pick
33%50%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge MAYBE +17%MAYBE · 0 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
33%50%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge MAYBE +17%MAYBE · 0 maps
AnubisMAYBE ban
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 0 maps
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge MAYBE +10%MAYBE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. BanMAYBE remove Mirage
3. PickNAVI Junior take Nuke
4. PickMAYBE take Ancient
5. BanMAYBE remove Anubis
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
NAVI Junior 43%MAYBE 57%
The model gave 57% on MAYBE — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
NAVI Junior 31%MAYBE 69%
The model gave 69% on MAYBE — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 62%
Series resultNAVI Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2