Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 13:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 13:2
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 2:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
71%29%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsedge NAVI Junior +42%MOUZ NXT · 10 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 8 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
33%56%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +23%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
AncientNAVI Junior ban
40%57%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +17%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
OverpassMOUZ NXT ban
50%29%
NAVI Junior · 0 mapsedge NAVI Junior +21%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
40%40%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
50%67%
NAVI Junior · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
3. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
4. BanMOUZ NXT remove Overpass
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Ancient
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
NAVI Junior 86%MOUZ NXT 14%
The model gave 86% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 56%
Series resultNAVI Junior 13:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1