ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#112 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OLDBOYS PLloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
36%57%
NAVI Junior · 7 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +21%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
Dust2OLDBOYS PL ban
45%40%
NAVI Junior · 7 mapsedge NAVI Junior +5%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
MirageNAVI Junior pick
60%50%
NAVI Junior · 6 mapsedge NAVI Junior +10%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
NukeOLDBOYS PL pick
38%71%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +33%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%60%
NAVI Junior · 5 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +16%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
33%50%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +17%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
DefaultOLDBOYS PL ban
60%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge NAVI Junior +10%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Default
3. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
4. PickOLDBOYS PL take Nuke
5. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Dust2
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (44% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
NAVI Junior 57%OLDBOYS PL 43%
The model gave 57% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
NAVI Junior 38%OLDBOYS PL 62%
The model gave 62% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
NAVI Junior 19%OLDBOYS PL 81%
The model gave 81% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 68%
Series resultNAVI Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3