United21 League Season 49 · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Prestige#100 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNAVI Junior pick
60%40%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge NAVI Junior +20%Prestige · 1 map
AncientPrestige pick
50%60%
NAVI Junior · 0 mapsedge Prestige +10%Prestige · 1 map
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
50%60%
NAVI Junior · 0 mapsedge Prestige +10%Prestige · 1 map
InfernoPrestige ban
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge Prestige +10%Prestige · 0 maps
NukePrestige ban
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge Prestige +10%Prestige · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
2. BanPrestige remove Inferno
3. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
4. PickPrestige take Ancient
5. BanPrestige remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
NAVI Junior 37%Prestige 63%
The model gave 63% on Prestige — the map was taken by Prestige.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
NAVI Junior 72%Prestige 28%
The model gave 72% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
NAVI Junior 40%Prestige 60%
The model gave 60% on Prestige — the map was taken by Prestige.
Model check result
Model favoritePrestige · 55%
Series resultPrestige 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3