NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BRUTE#89 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemesis ban
54%60%
Nemesis · 24 mapsedge BRUTE +6%BRUTE · 16 maps
MirageBRUTE pick
38%58%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge BRUTE +20%BRUTE · 15 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
62%33%
Nemesis · 22 mapsedge Nemesis +29%BRUTE · 2 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
80%67%
Nemesis · 16 mapsedge Nemesis +13%BRUTE · 8 maps
NukeBRUTE ban
61%64%
Nemesis · 14 mapsnearly even -3%BRUTE · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
76%67%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge Nemesis +9%BRUTE · 8 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%44%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +6%BRUTE · 14 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickBRUTE take Mirage
5. BanBRUTE remove Nuke
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderCache (76% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
Nemesis 28%BRUTE 72%
The model gave 72% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
Nemesis 65%BRUTE 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemesis — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 65%
Series resultBRUTE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2