WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientButterfly pick
55%63%
Nemesis · 18 mapsedge Butterfly +8%Butterfly · 12 maps
Dust2Butterfly ban
65%57%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge Nemesis +8%Butterfly · 10 maps
NukeNemesis pick
64%63%
Nemesis · 10 mapsnearly even +1%Butterfly · 12 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
43%23%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +20%Butterfly · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%69%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Butterfly +12%Butterfly · 9 maps
CacheNemesis ban
56%71%
Nemesis · 5 mapsedge Butterfly +15%Butterfly · 3 maps
DefaultNemesis ban
38%63%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +25%Butterfly · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Cache
2. BanButterfly remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Dust2
6. BanNemesis remove Default
DeciderMirage (57% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Nemesis 55%Butterfly 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Nemesis 74%Butterfly 26%
The model gave 74% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Nemesis 52%Butterfly 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 63%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3