BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
67%50%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +17%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
60%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +10%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
MirageNemesis ban
50%56%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +6%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
67%50%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +17%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
DefaultCYBERSHOKE ban
60%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
50%40%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +10%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Overpass
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Default
6. BanNemesis remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
Nemesis 57%CYBERSHOKE 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemesis — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Nemesis 63%CYBERSHOKE 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemesis — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 62%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2