WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis ban
52%50%
Nemesis · 19 mapsnearly even +2%DARKWALL · 0 maps
Dust2DARKWALL ban
63%50%
Nemesis · 15 mapsedge Nemesis +13%DARKWALL · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
61%50%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Nemesis +11%DARKWALL · 0 maps
MirageNemesis ban
46%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsnearly even -4%DARKWALL · 0 maps
NukeNemesis pick
62%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +12%DARKWALL · 0 maps
CacheDARKWALL ban
67%50%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +17%DARKWALL · 0 maps
DefaultDARKWALL pick
29%50%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge DARKWALL +21%DARKWALL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Mirage
2. BanDARKWALL remove Cache
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickDARKWALL take Default
5. BanDARKWALL remove Dust2
6. BanNemesis remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (61% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Nemesis 49%DARKWALL 51%
The model gave 51% on DARKWALL — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Nemesis 64%DARKWALL 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 84%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2