Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternal Fire#30 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
62%68%
Nemesis · 22 mapsedge Eternal Fire +6%Eternal Fire · 21 map
Dust2Nemesis ban
54%70%
Nemesis · 24 mapsedge Eternal Fire +16%Eternal Fire · 16 maps
Cachepossible decider
72%60%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Nemesis +12%Eternal Fire · 21 map
MirageEternal Fire ban
33%41%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%Eternal Fire · 18 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
80%50%
Nemesis · 16 mapsedge Nemesis +30%Eternal Fire · 12 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
58%50%
Nemesis · 15 mapsedge Nemesis +8%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%53%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderCache (72% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Nemesis 30%Eternal Fire 70%
The model gave 70% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
Nemesis 66%Eternal Fire 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Nemesis 43%Eternal Fire 57%
The model gave 57% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 60%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3