WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FFNloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
56%50%
Nemesis · 23 mapsedge Nemesis +6%FN · 0 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
57%50%
Nemesis · 19 mapsedge Nemesis +7%FN · 0 maps
InfernoFN ban
72%50%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Nemesis +22%FN · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
65%50%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge Nemesis +15%FN · 0 maps
MirageNemesis ban
38%50%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge FN +12%FN · 0 maps
CacheFN ban
67%50%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +17%FN · 0 maps
DefaultFN pick
29%50%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge FN +21%FN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Mirage
2. BanFN remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickFN take Default
5. BanFN remove Cache
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (65% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Nemesis 70%FN 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Nemesis 58%FN 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 82%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2