ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
fnatic#37 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic pick
50%60%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 1 map
AnubisNemesis ban
50%60%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 1 map
Infernofnatic ban
60%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +10%fnatic · 0 maps
MirageNemesis pick
50%40%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +10%fnatic · 1 map
Nukefnatic ban
60%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +10%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Mirage
4. Pickfnatic take Ancient
5. Banfnatic remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Nemesis 57%fnatic 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Nemesis 43%fnatic 57%
The model gave 57% on fnatic — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 52%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2