BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
56%56%
Nemesis · 5 mapsnearly even +0%FOKUS · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
70%57%
Nemesis · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +13%FOKUS · 3 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
70%43%
Nemesis · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +27%FOKUS · 3 maps
Dust2FOKUS pick
57%67%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +10%FOKUS · 5 maps
MirageNemesis ban
50%50%
Nemesis · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FOKUS · 2 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
40%71%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge FOKUS +31%FOKUS · 3 maps
DefaultFOKUS ban
60%50%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Overpass
2. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickFOKUS take Dust2
5. BanFOKUS remove Default
6. BanNemesis remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (70% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Nemesis 47%FOKUS 53%
The model gave 53% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Nemesis 53%FOKUS 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Nemesis 40%FOKUS 60%
The model gave 60% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 58%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3