1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FORZE Reload#86 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FORZE Reload ban
67%62%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +5%FORZE Reload · 9 maps
AncientNemesis ban
56%67%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge FORZE Reload +11%FORZE Reload · 2 maps
MirageFORZE Reload pick
58%55%
Nemesis · 8 mapsnearly even +3%FORZE Reload · 7 maps
NukeNemesis pick
67%70%
Nemesis · 8 mapsnearly even -3%FORZE Reload · 6 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
46%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsnearly even -4%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
CacheNemesis ban
33%63%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge FORZE Reload +30%FORZE Reload · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
38%40%
Nemesis · 4 mapsnearly even -2%FORZE Reload · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Cache
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickFORZE Reload take Mirage
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Dust2
6. BanNemesis remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (38% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Nemesis 51%FORZE Reload 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Nemesis 41%FORZE Reload 59%
The model gave 59% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 65%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2