NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemesis ban
64%68%
Nemesis · 10 mapsnearly even -4%HOTU · 18 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%62%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge HOTU +6%HOTU · 9 maps
CacheHOTU pick
40%65%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge HOTU +25%HOTU · 16 maps
NukeNemesis pick
73%67%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +6%HOTU · 8 maps
MirageHOTU ban
64%55%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +9%HOTU · 7 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%71%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge HOTU +21%HOTU · 10 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
46%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsnearly even -4%HOTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickHOTU take Cache
5. BanHOTU remove Mirage
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (56% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Nemesis 47%HOTU 53%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Nemesis 60%HOTU 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemesis — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 60%
Series resultHOTU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2