PGL Bucharest 2027 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
58%64%
Nemesis · 20 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Nuclear TigeRES · 24 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
52%48%
Nemesis · 17 mapsnearly even +4%Nuclear TigeRES · 25 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
71%75%
Nemesis · 13 mapsnearly even -4%Nuclear TigeRES · 16 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
64%47%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 13 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%54%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Nuclear TigeRES · 22 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%60%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
43%27%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +16%Nuclear TigeRES · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderCache (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:16
Nemesis 41%Nuclear TigeRES 59%
The model gave 59% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Nemesis 70%Nuclear TigeRES 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction missed13:1
Nemesis 44%Nuclear TigeRES 56%
The model gave 56% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 53%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3