WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UPGRADE#64 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
61%42%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Nemesis +19%UPGRADE · 8 maps
AncientUPGRADE pick
55%57%
Nemesis · 18 mapsnearly even -2%UPGRADE · 3 maps
NukeNemesis pick
64%38%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +26%UPGRADE · 4 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
60%50%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +10%UPGRADE · 2 maps
InfernoNemesis ban
47%60%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge UPGRADE +13%UPGRADE · 1 map
AnubisNemesis ban
50%67%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +17%UPGRADE · 8 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
56%43%
Nemesis · 5 mapsedge Nemesis +13%UPGRADE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickUPGRADE take Ancient
5. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
6. BanNemesis remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (61% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
Nemesis 60%UPGRADE 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Nemesis 40%UPGRADE 60%
The model gave 60% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 65%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2