WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WW#125 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
56%52%
Nemesis · 21 mapnearly even +4%WW · 21 map
AncientWW ban
59%40%
Nemesis · 23 mapsedge Nemesis +19%WW · 6 maps
MirageNemesis ban
35%50%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge WW +15%WW · 14 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
75%67%
Nemesis · 16 mapsedge Nemesis +8%WW · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%56%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +7%WW · 5 maps
CacheWW ban
71%44%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +27%WW · 5 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%55%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge WW +5%WW · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanWW remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickWW take Dust2
5. BanWW remove Cache
6. BanNemesis remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (63% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Nemesis 51%WW 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Nemesis 60%WW 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemesis — the map was taken by WW.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Nemesis 60%WW 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 80%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3