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CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
60%60%
Nemiga · 16 mapsnearly even +0%Black Phoenix · 46 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
78%43%
Nemiga · 14 mapsedge Nemiga +35%Black Phoenix · 24 maps
Nukepossible decider
65%52%
Nemiga · 13 mapsedge Nemiga +13%Black Phoenix · 21 map
AnubisNemiga pick
72%24%
Nemiga · 14 mapsedge Nemiga +48%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
CacheNemiga ban
64%53%
Nemiga · 10 mapsedge Nemiga +11%Black Phoenix · 15 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
54%33%
Nemiga · 22 mapsedge Nemiga +21%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
60%64%
Nemiga · 1 mapnearly even -4%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickNemiga take Anubis
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanNemiga remove Cache
DeciderNuke (65% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Nemiga 65%Black Phoenix 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Nemiga 47%Black Phoenix 53%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Nemiga 82%Black Phoenix 18%
The model gave 82% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 79%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3