BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CYBERSHOKE#82 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemiga ban
50%67%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +17%CYBERSHOKE · 2 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE ban
60%60%
Nemiga · 1 mapnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
60%40%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +20%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
50%60%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
AnubisNemiga pick
40%50%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge CYBERSHOKE +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Dust2
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
3. PickNemiga take Anubis
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:5
Nemiga 72%CYBERSHOKE 28%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Nemiga 47%CYBERSHOKE 53%
The model gave 53% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 54%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2