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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
New Legends#357 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Unreal Nightmare#382 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUnreal Nightmare pick
43%60%
New Legends · 3 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +17%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Dust2Unreal Nightmare ban
29%50%
New Legends · 3 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +21%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
MirageUnreal Nightmare ban
60%33%
New Legends · 1 mapedge New Legends +27%Unreal Nightmare · 2 maps
InfernoNew Legends ban
33%50%
New Legends · 2 mapsedge Unreal Nightmare +17%Unreal Nightmare · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%40%
New Legends · 1 mapedge New Legends +20%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
CacheNew Legends ban
50%40%
New Legends · 0 mapsedge New Legends +10%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
DefaultNew Legends pick
50%40%
New Legends · 0 mapsedge New Legends +10%Unreal Nightmare · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNew Legends remove Cache
2. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Dust2
3. PickNew Legends take Default
4. PickUnreal Nightmare take Ancient
5. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Mirage
6. BanNew Legends remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
New Legends 31%Unreal Nightmare 69%
The model gave 69% on Unreal Nightmare — the map was taken by Unreal Nightmare.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
New Legends 36%Unreal Nightmare 64%
The model gave 64% on Unreal Nightmare — the map was taken by New Legends.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
New Legends 75%Unreal Nightmare 25%
The model gave 75% on New Legends — the map was taken by Unreal Nightmare.
Model check result
Model favoriteNew Legends · 53%
Series resultUnreal Nightmare 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3