ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
NEW VISION#204 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEW VISION pick
44%50%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsedge Banger Gang +6%Banger Gang · 0 maps
InfernoNEW VISION ban
43%50%
NEW VISION · 3 mapsedge Banger Gang +7%Banger Gang · 0 maps
AnubisBanger Gang ban
50%50%
NEW VISION · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Dust2NEW VISION ban
50%50%
NEW VISION · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 0 maps
NukeBanger Gang ban
50%50%
NEW VISION · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 0 maps
MirageBanger Gang pick
40%50%
NEW VISION · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEW VISION remove Dust2
2. BanBanger Gang remove Anubis
3. PickNEW VISION take Ancient
4. PickBanger Gang take Mirage
5. BanBanger Gang remove Nuke
6. BanNEW VISION remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
NEW VISION 47%Banger Gang 53%
The model gave 53% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by NEW VISION.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
NEW VISION 53%Banger Gang 47%
The model gave 53% on NEW VISION — the map was taken by NEW VISION.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEW VISION · 56%
Series resultNEW VISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2