Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEW VISION#204 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEW VISION pick
41%38%
NEW VISION · 13 mapsnearly even +3%ex-MANA · 4 maps
Dust2ex-MANA pick
45%43%
NEW VISION · 7 mapsnearly even +2%ex-MANA · 10 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
43%33%
NEW VISION · 10 mapsedge NEW VISION +10%ex-MANA · 2 maps
MirageNEW VISION ban
33%71%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsedge ex-MANA +38%ex-MANA · 3 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
40%50%
NEW VISION · 6 mapsedge ex-MANA +10%ex-MANA · 2 maps
InfernoNEW VISION ban
44%33%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsedge NEW VISION +11%ex-MANA · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
NEW VISION · 1 mapedge NEW VISION +20%ex-MANA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEW VISION remove Inferno
2. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
3. PickNEW VISION take Ancient
4. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
5. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
6. BanNEW VISION remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
NEW VISION 50%ex-MANA 50%
The model gave 50% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
NEW VISION 57%ex-MANA 43%
The model gave 57% on NEW VISION — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-MANA · 52%
Series resultex-MANA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2