WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TrafficPills#230 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%38%
NEXORA · 5 mapsedge NEXORA +18%TrafficPills · 4 maps
NukeTrafficPills pick
29%57%
NEXORA · 3 mapsedge TrafficPills +28%TrafficPills · 3 maps
Dust2NEXORA pick
67%33%
NEXORA · 2 mapsedge NEXORA +34%TrafficPills · 2 maps
InfernoNEXORA ban
50%50%
NEXORA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%TrafficPills · 4 maps
CacheNEXORA ban
40%33%
NEXORA · 1 mapedge NEXORA +7%TrafficPills · 2 maps
AncientTrafficPills ban
33%50%
NEXORA · 2 mapsedge TrafficPills +17%TrafficPills · 0 maps
AnubisTrafficPills ban
60%50%
NEXORA · 1 mapedge NEXORA +10%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXORA remove Inferno
2. BanTrafficPills remove Ancient
3. PickNEXORA take Dust2
4. PickTrafficPills take Nuke
5. BanTrafficPills remove Anubis
6. BanNEXORA remove Cache
DeciderMirage (56% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
NEXORA 21%TrafficPills 79%
The model gave 79% on TrafficPills — the map was taken by TrafficPills.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
NEXORA 70%TrafficPills 30%
The model gave 70% on NEXORA — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
NEXORA 80%TrafficPills 20%
The model gave 80% on NEXORA — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Model check result
Model favoriteTrafficPills · 63%
Series resultNEXORA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3