ROG JOURNEY Summer 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAlliance pick
43%79%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Alliance +36%Alliance · 10 maps
NukeNexus ban
50%54%
Nexus · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Alliance · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%33%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Nexus +34%Alliance · 5 maps
OverpassNexus pick
57%33%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Nexus +24%Alliance · 2 maps
AncientAlliance ban
50%50%
Nexus · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 4 maps
Dust2Nexus ban
50%50%
Nexus · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 4 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Nuke
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. PickNexus take Overpass
4. PickAlliance take Inferno
5. BanAlliance remove Ancient
6. BanNexus remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (67% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
Nexus 75%Alliance 25%
The model gave 75% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
Nexus 47%Alliance 53%
The model gave 53% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
Nexus 50%Alliance 50%
The model gave 50% on Nexus — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 80%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3