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European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
44%61%
Nexus · 5 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Black Phoenix · 47 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
57%45%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Nexus +12%Black Phoenix · 25 maps
AnubisNexus pick
55%24%
Nexus · 7 mapsedge Nexus +31%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
Cachepossible decider
45%50%
Nexus · 7 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%Black Phoenix · 16 maps
NukeNexus ban
40%52%
Nexus · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +12%Black Phoenix · 21 map
InfernoNexus ban
43%64%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge Black Phoenix +21%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
63%33%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge Nexus +30%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Nuke
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickNexus take Anubis
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanNexus remove Inferno
DeciderCache (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
Nexus 81%Black Phoenix 19%
The model gave 81% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Nexus 31%Black Phoenix 69%
The model gave 69% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Nexus 50%Black Phoenix 50%
The model gave 50% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 64%
Series resultNexus 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3