Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamersLabloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%43%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Nexus +7%GamersLab · 3 maps
OverpassNexus pick
63%50%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge Nexus +13%GamersLab · 0 maps
AncientNexus ban
40%33%
Nexus · 1 mapedge Nexus +7%GamersLab · 2 maps
Dust2Nexus ban
40%67%
Nexus · 1 mapedge GamersLab +27%GamersLab · 2 maps
InfernoGamersLab pick
43%50%
Nexus · 3 mapsedge GamersLab +7%GamersLab · 0 maps
AnubisGamersLab ban
67%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Nexus +17%GamersLab · 0 maps
NukeGamersLab ban
50%33%
Nexus · 0 mapsedge Nexus +17%GamersLab · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Dust2
2. BanGamersLab remove Anubis
3. PickNexus take Overpass
4. PickGamersLab take Inferno
5. BanGamersLab remove Nuke
6. BanNexus remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Nexus 23%GamersLab 77%
The model gave 77% on GamersLab — the map was taken by Nexus.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Nexus 46%GamersLab 54%
The model gave 54% on GamersLab — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteNexus · 75%
Series resultNexus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2