ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
67%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
NukeChinggis Warriors ban
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors pick
60%60%
NEXVOID · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
Dust2Chinggis Warriors ban
67%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%Chinggis Warriors · 0 maps
DefaultNEXVOID ban
50%60%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
OverpassNEXVOID ban
40%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Overpass
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Dust2
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Ancient
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Nuke
6. BanNEXVOID remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
NEXVOID 64%Chinggis Warriors 36%
The model gave 64% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Overpassprediction missed13:10
NEXVOID 43%Chinggis Warriors 57%
The model gave 57% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 53%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2