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ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
70%58%
NEXVOID · 19 mapsedge NEXVOID +12%Chinggis Warriors · 8 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
70%44%
NEXVOID · 19 mapsedge NEXVOID +26%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
50%53%
NEXVOID · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Chinggis Warriors · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
46%45%
NEXVOID · 9 mapsnearly even +1%Chinggis Warriors · 7 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
22%40%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +18%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%29%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +21%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
6. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (46% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
NEXVOID 44%Chinggis Warriors 56%
The model gave 56% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
NEXVOID 65%Chinggis Warriors 35%
The model gave 65% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 62%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2