MESA Pro Series Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
64%65%
NEXVOID · 24 mapsnearly even -1%Chinggis Warriors · 13 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
69%53%
NEXVOID · 22 mapsedge NEXVOID +16%Chinggis Warriors · 11 maps
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
47%61%
NEXVOID · 13 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +14%Chinggis Warriors · 19 maps
Dust2possible decider
47%47%
NEXVOID · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 11 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
22%50%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +28%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%29%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +21%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%56%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +6%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
6. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (47% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
NEXVOID 34%Chinggis Warriors 66%
The model gave 66% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
NEXVOID 69%Chinggis Warriors 31%
The model gave 69% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
NEXVOID 50%Chinggis Warriors 50%
The model gave 50% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 53%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3