ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kaleido#167 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido ban
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%Kaleido · 0 maps
DefaultNEXVOID ban
50%60%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge Kaleido +10%Kaleido · 1 map
InfernoNEXVOID pick
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%Kaleido · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Default
2. BanKaleido remove Ancient
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
NEXVOID 47%Kaleido 53%
The model gave 53% on Kaleido — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
NEXVOID 53%Kaleido 47%
The model gave 53% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
NEXVOID 60%Kaleido 40%
The model gave 60% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 52%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3