ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legion#206 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
65%40%
NEXVOID · 16 mapsedge NEXVOID +25%Legion · 1 map
AncientLegion ban
75%50%
NEXVOID · 16 mapsedge NEXVOID +25%Legion · 0 maps
Dust2Legion pick
42%40%
NEXVOID · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Legion · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%50%
NEXVOID · 6 mapsedge Legion +10%Legion · 2 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
22%33%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge Legion +11%Legion · 2 maps
AnubisLegion ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Legion · 2 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%71%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge Legion +21%Legion · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanLegion remove Ancient
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickLegion take Dust2
5. BanLegion remove Anubis
6. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
DeciderNuke (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
NEXVOID 49%Legion 51%
The model gave 51% on Legion — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
NEXVOID 76%Legion 24%
The model gave 76% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 61%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2