ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rare Atom#98 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientRare Atom ban
85%60%
NEXVOID · 9 mapsedge NEXVOID +25%Rare Atom · 6 maps
Dust2NEXVOID ban
44%67%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +23%Rare Atom · 8 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
64%43%
NEXVOID · 10 mapsedge NEXVOID +21%Rare Atom · 3 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
33%67%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +34%Rare Atom · 5 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%63%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +13%Rare Atom · 4 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
38%50%
NEXVOID · 4 mapsedge Rare Atom +12%Rare Atom · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%60%
NEXVOID · 1 mapnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickRare Atom take Cache
5. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
6. BanNEXVOID remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct1:13
NEXVOID 26%Rare Atom 74%
The model gave 74% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
NEXVOID 81%Rare Atom 19%
The model gave 81% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
NEXVOID 71%Rare Atom 29%
The model gave 71% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 56%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3