FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
61%60%
NEXVOID · 14 mapsnearly even +1%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
87%38%
NEXVOID · 11 mapsedge NEXVOID +49%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
36%40%
NEXVOID · 7 mapsnearly even -4%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
38%46%
NEXVOID · 4 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +8%Chinggis Warriors · 9 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%33%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
33%40%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +7%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
6. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (36% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
NEXVOID 38%Chinggis Warriors 62%
The model gave 62% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
NEXVOID 92%Chinggis Warriors 8%
The model gave 92% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 74%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2