LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NT#88 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNT pick
43%53%
NT · 3 mapsedge INFINITE +10%INFINITE · 15 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%29%
NT · 2 mapsedge NT +21%INFINITE · 10 maps
AncientNT ban
50%27%
NT · 0 mapsedge NT +23%INFINITE · 7 maps
CacheINFINITE ban
43%50%
NT · 3 mapsedge INFINITE +7%INFINITE · 4 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
60%40%
NT · 1 mapedge NT +20%INFINITE · 6 maps
NukeNT ban
40%33%
NT · 1 mapedge NT +7%INFINITE · 5 maps
DefaultINFINITE pick
50%71%
NT · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +21%INFINITE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNT remove Nuke
2. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
3. PickNT take Mirage
4. PickINFINITE take Default
5. BanINFINITE remove Cache
6. BanNT remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
NT 75%INFINITE 25%
The model gave 75% on NT — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Dust2prediction missed16:19
NT 69%INFINITE 31%
The model gave 69% on NT — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 54%
Series resultINFINITE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2