PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
NT#88 in the world · loss 3:13series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 3:13
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 13:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
50%30%
NT · 8 mapsedge NT +20%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%56%
NT · 8 mapsedge NT +11%Johnny Speeds · 5 maps
CacheJohnny Speeds ban
44%40%
NT · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%43%
NT · 4 mapsedge NT +7%Johnny Speeds · 3 maps
AnubisNT ban
25%40%
NT · 4 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +15%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
AncientNT ban
43%60%
NT · 3 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
InfernoNT ban
60%67%
NT · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +7%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNT remove Anubis
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Cache
3. BanNT remove Inferno
4. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
5. BanNT remove Ancient
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (67% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
NT 70%Johnny Speeds 30%
The model gave 70% on NT — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 52%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 3:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1