ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 16:12series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 16:12
BBL#49 in the world · loss 12:16The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL ban
65%53%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 19 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +12%BBL · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 mapsnearly even -3%BBL · 6 maps
MirageBBL ban
47%42%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +5%BBL · 8 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
60%55%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +5%BBL · 7 maps
CacheNinjas in Pyjamas ban
43%33%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 10 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%BBL · 5 maps
AnubisBBL ban
50%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%BBL · 1 map
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge BBL +17%BBL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanBBL remove Anubis
3. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Cache
4. BanBBL remove Mirage
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
6. BanBBL remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct16:12
Ninjas in Pyjamas 56%BBL 44%
The model gave 56% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 57%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 16:12
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1