ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
65%43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 19 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +22%Johnny Speeds · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
47%33%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +14%Johnny Speeds · 5 maps
AncientJohnny Speeds ban
57%60%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 17 mapsnearly even -3%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
CacheNinjas in Pyjamas ban
43%44%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 10 mapsnearly even -1%Johnny Speeds · 5 maps
InfernoJohnny Speeds pick
63%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%56%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +23%Johnny Speeds · 5 maps
AnubisJohnny Speeds ban
50%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Inferno
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Ancient
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Cache
DeciderMirage (47% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
Ninjas in Pyjamas 61%Johnny Speeds 39%
The model gave 61% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Ninjas in Pyjamas 51%Johnny Speeds 49%
The model gave 51% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 62%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2