Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nuclear TigeRES#45 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
57%67%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 17 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
65%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +15%Nuclear TigeRES · 10 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
44%63%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +19%Nuclear TigeRES · 15 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
60%73%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +13%Nuclear TigeRES · 7 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
40%30%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%47%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Nuclear TigeRES · 11 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
25%71%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +46%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Ninjas in Pyjamas 50%Nuclear TigeRES 50%
The model gave 50% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Ninjas in Pyjamas 64%Nuclear TigeRES 36%
The model gave 64% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 66%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2