ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#148 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
64%65%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsnearly even -1%Atreides · 13 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
46%43%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsnearly even +3%Atreides · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
44%31%
Noir Verse · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +13%Atreides · 12 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
47%40%
Noir Verse · 11 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Atreides · 6 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
50%36%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +14%Atreides · 7 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
38%45%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsedge Atreides +7%Atreides · 7 maps
CacheNoir Verse pick
58%40%
Noir Verse · 8 mapsedge Noir Verse +18%Atreides · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickNoir Verse take Cache
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Anubis
6. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (44% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Noir Verse 60%Atreides 40%
The model gave 60% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Noir Verse 50%Atreides 50%
The model gave 50% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 51%
Series resultNoir Verse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2