ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#148 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Noir Verse · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Dark Moon · 2 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
59%43%
Noir Verse · 13 mapsedge Noir Verse +16%Dark Moon · 3 maps
AncientDark Moon ban
50%33%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Dark Moon · 2 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
50%50%
Noir Verse · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Dark Moon · 0 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
47%50%
Noir Verse · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Dark Moon · 0 maps
CacheDark Moon ban
54%50%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Dark Moon · 0 maps
DefaultDark Moon pick
36%50%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Dark Moon +14%Dark Moon · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
2. BanDark Moon remove Ancient
3. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
4. PickDark Moon take Default
5. BanDark Moon remove Cache
6. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Noir Verse 53%Dark Moon 47%
The model gave 53% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Noir Verse 63%Dark Moon 37%
The model gave 63% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 62%
Series resultDark Moon 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2