ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNoir Verse pick
55%33%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Noir Verse +22%Fortress · 5 maps
AncientFortress pick
33%56%
Noir Verse · 5 mapsedge Fortress +23%Fortress · 5 maps
MirageFortress ban
56%29%
Noir Verse · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +27%Fortress · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
33%22%
Noir Verse · 2 mapsedge Noir Verse +11%Fortress · 5 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
40%40%
Noir Verse · 1 mapnearly even +0%Fortress · 6 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
50%50%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Fortress · 2 maps
Dust2Fortress ban
38%60%
Noir Verse · 4 mapsedge Fortress +22%Fortress · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickNoir Verse take Nuke
4. PickFortress take Ancient
5. BanFortress remove Dust2
6. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
DeciderCache (33% / 22%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Noir Verse 26%Fortress 74%
The model gave 74% on Fortress — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
Noir Verse 31%Fortress 69%
The model gave 69% on Fortress — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 67%
Series resultNoir Verse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2