ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ryvex#181 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ryvex pick
45%50%
Noir Verse · 16 mapsedge Ryvex +5%Ryvex · 2 maps
AnubisRyvex ban
44%50%
Noir Verse · 14 mapsedge Ryvex +6%Ryvex · 0 maps
CacheRyvex ban
47%40%
Noir Verse · 13 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Ryvex · 1 map
MirageNoir Verse pick
65%60%
Noir Verse · 13 mapsedge Noir Verse +5%Ryvex · 1 map
AncientNoir Verse ban
53%67%
Noir Verse · 11 mapsedge Ryvex +14%Ryvex · 2 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
36%43%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Ryvex +7%Ryvex · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%50%
Noir Verse · 8 mapsedge Ryvex +17%Ryvex · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
2. BanRyvex remove Anubis
3. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
4. PickRyvex take Dust2
5. BanRyvex remove Cache
6. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Noir Verse 34%Ryvex 66%
The model gave 66% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Cacheprediction correct16:12
Noir Verse 60%Ryvex 40%
The model gave 60% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 54%
Series resultNoir Verse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2